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Are We in a Recession? Predictions, Signs and Strategies

‘Never miss out on an opportunity like a recession’ — Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric.

US President Donald Trump’s plans to overhaul the current global trade structure through sweeping tariffs have once again ignited recession fears. With both businesses and consumers considering pulling back on spending if costs rise, many economists are forecasting a higher risk of a deep economic downturn.

Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE:GS) seesaw recession predictions on April 9 are a clear indication that much remains unclear when it comes to the possible implications for the US economy. That day, the firm forecasted a GDP loss of 1 percent in 2025 and a 65 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months.

However, within an hour, Trump announced a 90 day pause on his reciprocal tariffs and the group returned to its previous non-recession baseline forecast, with GDP growth of 0.5 percent and a 45 percent probability of recession.

Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in its reluctance to say a recession is in the cards. During an April 14 Fox Business interview, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said his firm does not expect to see a recession in 2025, although he acknowledged that BoA did lower its GDP forecast for the year and that continued uncertainty around tariffs could change its outlook.

However, others believe the country has already entered a recession.

“I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now,” Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink told CNBC during an April 11 interview. “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty.”

So — are we in a recession? Even though nailing down an answer is tricky, investors educate themselves on what a recession is, how long they last and what strategies may work well during these difficult economic periods.

In this article

    What is a recession?

    When a country’s economic activity experiences a serious and persistent decline over an extended period, often over two consecutive quarters, economists often call it a recession. Recessions involve a broad array of economic sectors, not just a decline among one or two industries.

    Some of the key indicators of a recession include rising unemployment levels, negative GDP, stock market selloffs and falling manufacturing data, as well as declining consumer confidence as evidenced by dropping retail sales.

    Answering the question of whether we’re in a recession is difficult because so many factors are at play — while one expert might weigh GDP declines heavily in their analysis, another might feel other elements are more important.

    Watch the video from mid-2023 below to get a sense of why getting a consensus on whether we’re in a recession can be tough.

    Experts Rick Rule, Adrian Day and Mike Larson explain why it’s hard to get an answer on whether the US is in a recession.

    What causes a recession?

    Forbes lists a number of catalysts that can spark a recession: sudden economic shock, excessive debt (think the US mortgage debt crisis that fueled the Great Recession in 2008), asset bubbles, uncontrolled inflation (which leads central banks to raise interest rates, making it more expensive to do business or pay down debts), runaway deflation and technological changes. Tariffs have also historically been linked with recession.

    How can tariffs cause a recession?

    Tariffs can cause a recession through a domino effect of increased costs, supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and investment uncertainty — all of which can bring about massive layoffs in critical sectors of the economy.

    Economic historians, such as Dr. Phillip Magness of the Independent Institute, have pointed to the worsening of the Great Depression following the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 as offering a potent warning about the potential outcome of the sweeping tariffs being enacted under US President Trump.

    Watch the video below to learn more about the potential for tariffs to spark a recession and why investors are looking to gold for safety.

    Magness said there’s still a chance to avoid a recession if Trump reverses course on his tariff policy.

    Are there signs before a recession?

    What are the telltale signs that warn of a recession in advance? Much like accurately forecasting the weather, making any sort of economic forecast is difficult. But there are certain signals economists look out for.

    Aside from the previously mentioned slumping GDP and falling copper prices, one of the most prominent harbingers of a looming recession is an inverted bond yield curve.

    “The bond market can help predict the direction of the economy and can be useful in crafting your investment strategy,” Investopedia states. “This metric — while not a guarantee of future economic behavior — has a strong track record.”

    In addition, declining unemployment figures, shrinking industrial output, falling retail sales and dramatic stock market selloffs are often considered classic indicators of a potential recession.

    Will there be a recession in 2025?

    Forecasting recessions can be tricky. There are extenuating circumstances that may allow for a reversal of fortunes before a deeper recession takes hold, but in the meantime many historical recession signals are currently flashing red.

    Newsweek has cited a number of US economists who identified five critical recession indicators on display, including declining consumer confidence, increasing credit card late payments and defaults, higher business and trade policy uncertainty, and rising inflation expectations.

    ‘The layoff cycle is indeed accelerating into 2025,’ she said. ‘The biggest determination of prices (for goods and services) that can or cannot be paid is what your paycheck is. What we’re seeing is average weekly earnings have stagnated starting in December, and have begun to fall on an inflation adjusted basis.’

    DiMartino Booth sees the central bank potentially cutting rates four to five times in 2025.

    Is Warren Buffett predicting a recession?

    Warren Buffett is not known for his direct forecasts. In fact, he’s likely to say, “Nothing is sure tomorrow, nothing is sure next year and nothing is ever sure, either in markets or in business forecasts, or in anything else.” For that reason, his investment decisions are often read like tea leaves by market watchers looking for signs on where to invest.

    So when the Oracle of Omaha called tariffs ‘an act of war to some degree’ during a March 2025 CBS interview, it was not a good sign. Market watchers will certainly be on the lookout for new clues when Buffet speaks to shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK.A,NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting in May.

    Another move by Buffett that’s being interpreted as a recession signal? Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to sell off of US$134 billion in equity positions in 2024 in order to beef up its cash holdings, which came in at a record US334 billion as of March 2025.

    How long do recessions last?

    Recessions are considered a part of the normal expansions and contractions of the business cycle.

    While not as catastrophic as depressions, recessions can last for several months and even years, with significant consequences for governments, companies, workers and investors. Each of the four global recessions since World War II lasted about one year.

    That said, there have been a few short-lived recessions in the US, including the 2020 pandemic recession. Stock markets around the world crashed at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. A record 20.5 million jobs were lost in the US alone in April 2020 as the nation’s unemployment rate reached 14.7 percent.

    The Fed responded by cutting interest rates, and the US federal government issued trillions of dollars in financial aid to laid-off workers and impacted businesses. By October 2020, US GDP was up 33.1 percent, marking an end to the recession.

    What sectors are hardest hit by a recession?

    Businesses often tighten their belts during recessions by postponing expansion plans, reducing worker hours and benefits or laying off employees. Those same workers are the consumers who play a vital role in the strength of a nation’s economic activity.

    With less disposable income, consumers stop spending on large appliances, vehicles, new homes, evenings out and vacations. The focus shifts to low-priced necessities, food and medical needs. Declining consumer spending and demand for goods and services pushes the economy into a deeper recession, resulting in more layoffs and rising unemployment. Small- and medium-sized business owners may even find themselves unable to operate entirely.

    Typically, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. The real estate and mortgage lending sectors may also feel the pain.

    As the recession worsens, some homeowners may not be able to pay their mortgages and could face defaults, which can bring further downward pressure on real estate prices. Those still shopping for a home or new car may find that banks have instituted much tighter lending policies on mortgages and car loans.

    Meanwhile, investors can lose money as their stock holdings and real estate assets lose their value. Retirement savings accounts linked to the stock market can also suffer.

    All of these forces can contribute to a deflationary environment that leads central banks to cut interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy out of a recession.

    How to prepare for a recession?

    There is no perfect answer for how to invest during a recession, and no stock remains recession-proof. But for those who know how to practice due diligence through fundamental analysis, recessions do offer an opportunity to pick quality stocks at a discount.

    “The stock market is the only store where when things go on sale, everyone runs out the door. You don’t want to be one of those people,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade. “So if you have a long term focus and some specific names you’re looking at, this is a good time to pick up some quality shares for your portfolio.”

    It’s better to look at well-established publicly traded companies with strong balance sheets and minimal debt that still have the ability to generate cash and pay dividends. Companies to avoid include those with high debt loads and little cashflow, as they have a difficult time managing operating costs and debt payments during recessions.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to watch the data closely if they want to stay ahead of the curve, particularly payroll levels, layoff announcements, bankruptcies and store closures.

    Industry matters, too. As mentioned, real estate, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. On the other hand, stocks in the consumer staples (food and beverage, household goods, alcohol and tobacco) and healthcare (biotech and pharmaceutical) sectors tend to do well in recessionary environments.

    Inventors can further mitigate the risks that a recession brings by building a diversified portfolio that considers stocks across varying sectors and geographic regions. Rather than investing in individual stocks, exchange-traded funds with low management fees are another way to spread risk. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (ARCA:VDC) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (ARCA:XLP) are two examples to consider.

    Should I wait to invest until after a recession?

    This question brings us back to the quote from General Electric’s Welch that’s cited at the beginning of this article. For long-term investors who understand the popular adage, “buy low, sell high,” a recession and its impact on share prices offers up those ‘buy low’ opportunities. That’s because all things come to an end, even recessions, and when that happens those who bought the dip will be well positioned to benefit from the rebound.

    That said, due diligence never goes out of style. Not all companies will make it through a market downturn unscathed. To truly see returns from this investment strategy it’s critical to look for companies with strong balance sheets, experienced management and a history of performing well in bear markets. Opting for revenue-generating and dividend-paying stocks over growth stocks during a recession is another smart play.

    Overall, experts advise that it’s not necessary to avoid investing during a recession.

    “While (recessions) can be challenging for returns and growing wealth, we also see countercyclical rallies and the market is always forward-looking, so the keys are to remain fully invested, not be whipsawed by short-term market gyrations and to keep (focused) on your long-term goals,” Rajesh Nakadi, head of investments of the Global Family Office at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, told Forbes.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to focus on companies’ ability to maintain dividends and cash flow during this period, meaning defensive plays that pay dividends and are able to increase their payrolls are a worth a look.

    What assets can hold their value in a deep recession?

    For long-term investors looking to ride out the worst recessions, stocks and high-yield bonds are best avoided. Safer assets that have historically performed well during recessions include government bonds, managed futures, gold and cash.

    It should be noted that while 10 year US Treasury bonds have an excellent reputation as a reliable safe haven asset, nothing is without risk. In early April 2025, following another round of tariffs announced by Trump, an unprecedented number of sellers, including foreign governments, ditched their US bond holdings, resulting in rising bond yields. Although yields fell a few days later, uncertainty in the bond market remains.

    “There is clearly still a lot of concern over this highly unusual rise in Treasury yields at a time of equity market weakness and global concern over recession,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal. “Notably, the backup in yields was mostly driven by rising real yields and not higher inflation premiums … indicating a more fundamental drop in demand.”

    If you’ve parked your dollars in actual dollars, i.e. cash, instead of the stock market or bonds, the value is not being erased by declining stock prices. The ‘cash is king’ mantra speaks to the importance of keeping liquid assets on hand during a recession.

    Along that same vein, gold has earned its safe-haven status because it is a physical asset that holds its value and can be easily liquidated.

    One last thought — don’t move all your wealth into gold or cash. A diversified portfolio is still the best hedge against a recession.

    Which stocks do well after a recession?

    Once the economy is in the recovery stage and consumer confidence begins to improve, the best performing stocks in the market tend to be tied to the technology, financial, consumer discretionary, industrial, material and energy sectors.

    The consumer discretionary (i.e. cars and appliances), material and industrial segments “are known as cyclicals, because they are closely tied to the fortunes of the economy,” the Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY,NYSE:RY) states. The bank explains that once demand improves, manufacturers will begin using up their inventory and will in turn “need to order metal, chemicals and other materials to create more goods to sell.”

    Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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    Trump Takes Aim at China with Deep-Sea Mining Nod, Looks to Boost Critical Minerals

    Continuing his administration’s push toward reducing US reliance on Chinese mineral imports, President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order to fast track processes for deep-sea mining.

    The release highlights nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, titanium and rare earths as strategic minerals key to both national security and economic prosperity, saying that deep-sea mining may provide increased access.

    The April 24 announcement from Trump came a day after Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum outlined potential plans for the government to invest in US companies that mine and process critical minerals.

    Speaking at a conference put together by the Hamm Institute for American Energy, Burgum said there may be a need for “equity investment in each of these companies that’s taking on China in critical minerals.”

    He discussed a multifaceted strategy that could include the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, government-backed sovereign risk insurance and a national stockpile of critical minerals.

    “We should be taking some of our balance sheet and making investments,” Burgum told reporters last week. “Why wouldn’t the wealthiest country in the world have the biggest sovereign wealth fund?”

    What’s at stake for the US?

    These efforts to reposition America’s mineral supply chain come amid the country’s escalating trade war with China, which has tightened its grip on the global critical minerals market.

    Currently, China produces or refines a dominant share of 20 key raw materials used in essential technologies — from semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries to missile guidance systems and wind turbines.

    According to the US Geological Survey, the US was 100 percent reliant on imports for 15 critical minerals in 2024, and approximately 70 percent of its rare earths came from China the year before.

    China’s latest retaliation — a new wave of export controls on rare earth elements in response to US tariffs — has only intensified concerns about supply chain vulnerability.

    “We have to get back in the game,” Burgum urged in the same conference.

    “It’s not just drill, baby, drill. It’s mine, baby, mine. If we don’t do that as a country, we will not be successful. We will literally be at the mercy of others that are controlling our supply chains.”

    Building a domestic safety net for America

    To offset both economic and geopolitical risks, Burgum laid out three key proposals under consideration:

    1. Sovereign wealth fund — A mechanism to allow the US to take equity stakes in domestic mining and processing firms, particularly those struggling to compete with Chinese state-backed entities.
    2. Sovereign risk insurance — A federal insurance program to reimburse companies in the event that a future administration cancels approved projects.

    Burgum asserted that the three combined would put the US “in the game around critical minerals,” and said the administration is currently “working on all three.”

    Opening the ocean floor to mining

    Trump’s executive order directs federal agencies to expedite permitting under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. In addition to that, it instructs agencies to identify mineral-rich regions, facilitate exploration and map seabed areas for priority development.

    Notably, the move bypasses the ongoing regulatory negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a United Nations body tasked with setting global standards for ocean floor mining.

    “The United States has a core national security and economic interest in maintaining leadership in deep sea science and technology and seabed mineral resources,” Trump states in the order.

    Officials say US waters hold over 1 billion metric tons of seabed mineral deposits, including copper, cobalt, manganese and nickel — essential materials for renewable energy technologies and military applications.

    However, the move has been met with sharp criticism from environmental groups and international regulators, which have long warned of the untested ecological risks of deep-sea mining.

    “We condemn this administration’s attempt to launch this destructive industry on the high seas in the Pacific by bypassing the United Nations process,” said Greenpeace USA’s Arlo Hemphill in a statement.

    “This is an insult to multilateralism and a slap in the face to all the countries and millions of people around the world who oppose this dangerous industry,’ he continues in the April 25 release.

    The ISA, created under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — which the US has not ratified — has been working to establish a regulatory framework before any commercial deep-sea mining begins.

    It is still deliberating rules on how to balance environmental concerns with mineral exploitation, with ISA Secretary-General Leticia Carvalho expressing hope that a global consensus can be reached by the end of 2025.

    Mining companies mobilize amid US critical minerals push

    Mining and energy companies are moving swiftly to capitalize on the Trump administration’s push to expand domestic production of rare earths and other critical minerals.

    MP Materials (NYSE:MP), the operator of the only active rare earths mine in the US, reported a surge in interest from manufacturers after China imposed new export restrictions. The company has halted shipments of unprocessed ore to China, citing steep tariffs, and is ramping up efforts to process materials domestically.

    NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ:NB) has welcomed the White House’s call to streamline permitting, which coincides with its plans to accelerate its Nebraska-based Elk Creek critical minerals project.

    In the lithium space, oil giants like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) are clashing over production rights in Arkansas’ Smackover Formation, one of the country’s richest potential lithium sources.

    Exxon subsidiary Saltwerx recently won regulatory approval to develop a 56,000 acre lithium unit, a move it said could unlock the domestic industry and bolster US energy security.

    At sea, The Metals Company (NASDAQ:TMC) is seeking permits under a decades-old US law to mine polymetallic nodules from the Pacific seabed, pointing to renewed political will.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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    Business

    On air, ’60 Minutes’ reporter says ‘none of us is happy’ about changes that led top producer to quit

    “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley paid tribute Sunday to Bill Owens, the show’s executive producer who resigned last week, saying on the air that “none of us is happy” about the extra supervision that corporate leaders are imposing.

    Pelley made his comments at the end of the evening’s CBS News telecast, saying that in quitting, Owens proved he was the right person for the job.

    “It was hard on him and it was hard on us,” Pelley said. “But he did it for us — and you.”

    His on-air statement was an unusual peek behind the scenes at the sort of inner turmoil that viewers seldom get the opportunity to see.

    Owens, only the third top executive in the 57-year history of television’s most influential newscast, resigned last week, saying he no longer felt he had the independence to run the program as he had in the past, and felt necessary.

    CBS News’ parent company, Paramount Global, is in the midst of a merger with Skydance Media that needs the approval of the Trump administration. Trump has sued “60 Minutes” for $20 billion, saying it unfairly edited a Kamala Harris interview last fall to her advantage. Owens and others at “60 Minutes” believe they did nothing wrong and have opposed a settlement.

    As a result, Pelley explained to viewers on Sunday, Paramount has begun to supervise “60 Minutes” stories in new ways. Former CBS News President Susan Zirinsky, a longtime news producer, has reportedly been asked to look at the show’s stories before they air.

    “None of our stories has been blocked,” Pelley said. “But Bill felt he lost the independence that honest journalism requires. No one here is happy about it. But in resigning, Bill proved he was the right person to lead ‘60 Minutes’ all along.”

    Despite this, “60 Minutes” has done tough stories about the Trump administration almost every week since the inauguration in January, many of them reported by Pelley. On Sunday, “60 Minutes” correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi had the latest, interviewing scientists about cutbacks at the National Institutes for Health.

    Trump was particularly angered by the show’s telecast two weeks ago, saying on social media that CBS News should “pay a big price” for going after him.

    This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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    Pope Francis used WhatsApp to stay connected to torture survivor of Argentina’s ‘Dirty War’

    Ana María Careaga was just 16 when she was kidnapped, stolen by the regime then running Argentina. To her mother, Esther Ballestrino de Careaga, it was as if she had vanished.

    It was an event that would change not just the lives of both the women and the daughter Ana María was carrying, but the future of Argentina. And it was something a priest named Jorge Bergoglio would never forget.

    It was 1977 and Argentina was under the grip of a military dictatorship following a coup the year before. Those who opposed the regime were abducted, tortured, and killed – victims of what would become known as the “Dirty War.”

    There was no notification or public record of the detentions, and families had no idea what had happened to their loved ones.

    By the time Ana María was seized, her brother-in-law had already disappeared. Soldiers took her to the clandestine detention center known as El Atlético, where she was tortured – even after she told her captors she was three months pregnant.

    Although the extrajudicial kidnappings were becoming increasingly common, families did not speak of them — until mothers took a stand.

    On April 30, 1977, a dozen or so women, each the mother of a missing child, gathered in Plaza de Mayo, the grand square in front of the Casa Rosada presidential palace in Buenos Aires. They were ordered to disperse, but instead linked arms and continued to walk slowly around the square.

    Each Sunday, more women would come to join in, soon to include Esther who became one of the leaders of Las Madres de Playa de Mayo (the Mothers of Playa de Mayo.)

    Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo hold a banner as they walk in front of the Casa Rosada in 1980.
    Daniel Garcia/AFP/Getty Images
    The protesters hold pictures of their loved ones. Thousands upon thousands of people were killed or disappeared.
    Daniel Garcia/AFP/Getty Images

    Esther knew Bergoglio long before he had even joined the priesthood. She had been his boss while he was a high schooler working a technical internship at a laboratory.

    ‘The disappeared are my children’

    While Ana María was detained — always chained and blindfolded, she said — her mother and other members of the movement met in a back room at the Santa Cruz Church in downtown Buenos Aires.

    Ana María turned 17 while still in captivity, and she was released on September 30, 1977, by then seven months pregnant.

    Within days of a medical check arranged by her mother, she left for Sweden, where she was granted asylum.

    “That was the last time we saw each other,” Ana María said. “We wrote letters to each other, and in one letter she tells me that when I was kidnapped, she was like an automaton, thinking about (me) the whole time. She left in the morning and came back at night, out all day with the mothers searching, searching, searching.”

    Even when her daughter was safe, Esther kept campaigning for those who had become known as the “disappeared.”

    To Ana María, and perhaps to the priest who’d befriended her mother, it was a reflection that “the struggle wasn’t just individual, but a collective one.”

    Months after her daughter’s release, in December 1977, Esther and others met as usual at Santa Cruz when they were betrayed. Stepping out of the church, she and others were abducted.

    “They had been taken to … a clandestine center for torture and extermination, and then they were thrown alive from the ‘death flights,’ which was the final solution they (the regime) boasted of having found to get rid of the bodies,” Ana María said. The “death flights” where prisoners were killed by being tossed from a plane over land or sea is now a documented horror of the Dirty War.

    Many bodies were never recovered, but days after she disappeared, the remains of Esther washed up on land.

    “What the Mothers say is that the sea did not want to be an accomplice and returned the bodies,” Ana María said.

    Esther’s remains were unidentified though and buried in a mass grave.

    Ana María did not know of her mother’s disappearance until she called to tell her of the birth of her granddaughter, the baby carried while she was detained.

    “She was born on December 11, and we called on December 11, 1977, to say that she had been born, and that’s when we found out that my mom had been kidnapped three days earlier,” she said. “My mom didn’t know that she had been born safely.”

    ‘I did what I could’

    As Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Bergoglio testified about Esther during a 2010 trial related to Dirty War atrocities. In an excerpt posted on YouTube by journalist Uki Goñi, he said he had known her for more than 20 years.

    “It caused me great pain,” Bergoglio said of learning of her abduction. “I tried to get in touch with relatives, I wasn’t able to. They were mostly … in hiding.”

    He said he had tried to speak to people who could help but had not approached the authorities. His actions or lack thereof during the Dirty War hung around him as unanswered questions, even as the Vatican dismissed allegations against him.

    “I did what I could,” he told the trial. “I remember her as a great woman.”

    Decades later, long after the fall of the military regime in 1983, the remains from the oceanside mass grave were identified, and found to include Esther.

    Families petitioned Bergoglio to allow them to be buried not in a cemetery, but outside the Church of Santa Cruz — the last place they had walked free.

    “He said it was an honor,” Ana María told us. “He remembered his friend Esther and said it was an honor and authorized it so we could, as the faithful of this church say, sow them in the last free land that their feet trod.”

    To commemorate her mother and all the others who challenged the regime, April 30 is now recognized as the founding of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo.

    The Vatican publicized a message then Pope Francis sent to Ana Marìa in 2018 to play on a radio show she hosts. “I very much remember your mother,” he said then. “She worked hard, she was a fighter and together with her many women who fought for justice, both because they had lost their children or simply because mothers who, seeing the drama of so many missing children, came together to fight for this as well.”

    Standing just off the main altar inside Santa Cruz Church, Ana María calmly pulled out her replacement phone — her original had been recently stolen. Fortunately, her WhatsApp messages had been backed up, preserving the Pope’s words, and her memories.

    She still has that recording on her phone. In it, the Pope tells her: “I’m glad you follow these footsteps of your mother and that you broadcast it to others in your radio show. So today, in a special way, I pray for mothers, I pray for you, I pray for your mother Esther, and I pray for all the men and women of good will who wish to carry forward a project of justice and fraternity among all. May God bless you all.”

    Esther Ballestrino de Careaga never met her granddaughter. But Pope Francis did, spending about an hour with her last year when she visited Rome, her mother said, proudly showing a video of the two together. “He knew the whole story because my mom told him everything they had done to me, the torture, everything,” Ana María said.

    As another April 30 anniversary approaches, Ana María has only memories now of her mother and the Pope.

    Of her mother, she said: “I have a very vivid memory of a very loving, hard-working, and committed person. I feel she left me with many values, and she’s present in our history because disappearance generates that — disappearance is the permanent presence of an absence.”

    She carries a directive from the Pope as well.

    “When my daughter went to see him last year, he told her that we had to continue bearing witness,” she said. “We, right now in Argentina, are going through a very difficult time, and I say … we need to remember again.”

    “Everything that happened, the 30,000 disappeared, and how the Mothers created a civilizing pact in this country, a social contract of ‘never again.’ And that’s why it’s so important to preserve memory, which was also what the Pope said: that memory had to be preserved.”

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

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    Iran tight-lipped on cause of deadly port explosion amid reports of possible presence of chemicals used to fuel missiles

    Iranian authorities have not said what caused the massive explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas on Saturday, killing at least 28 people, but video footage and unconfirmed reports point to the possible presence of a chemical used to make missile propellant.

    Eyewitness accounts and video indicate chemicals in an area of shipping containers caught fire, setting off a much larger explosion. The death toll spiked sharply following the incident, with 800 others also reported injured.

    One surveillance video distributed by the Fars news agency shows a small fire beginning among containers, with a number of workers moving away from the scene, before a huge explosion ends the video feed.

    The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency quoted an official as saying the explosion was likely set off by containers of chemicals, but did not identify the chemicals. The agency said late Saturday that the Customs Administration of Iran blamed a “stockpile of hazardous goods and chemical materials stored in the port area” for the blast.

    Iran’s national oil company said the explosion at the port was “not related to refineries, fuel tanks, or oil pipelines” in the area.

    Iranian officials have denied that any military materiel was held at the port. The spokesman for the national security and foreign policy committee of the Iranian parliament, Ebrahim Rezaei, said in a post on X Sunday that according to initial reports the explosion had “nothing to do with Iran’s defense sector.”

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Bandar Abbas on Sunday afternoon to investigate the situation and oversee relief efforts, according to state media. The president also met with those injured in yesterday’s blast.

    The blast comes at a time of high tensions in the Middle East and ongoing talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear programme, but no senior figure in Iran has suggested the blast was an attack.

    Fires at the port were still burning Sunday, although Iranian state media said they were 80% contained.

    The New York Times reported Sunday that a person “with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that what exploded was sodium perchlorate, a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles. The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.”

    Sodium perchlorate could allow for the production of sufficient propellant for some 260 solid rocket motors for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan missiles or 200 of the Haj Qasem ballistic missiles, according to the intelligence sources.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

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    Canadian Filipinos mourn after car ramming attack on their community. Here’s what we know

    A man accused by police of carrying out a deadly car-ramming in Vancouver has been charged with murder, as Canadian Filipinos mourn the attack on their community.

    Kai-Ji- Adam Lo allegedly plowed his car into a crowd at a street festival celebrating Filipino heritage on Saturday night, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.

    The suspect, who was detained on the scene, had a history of mental health-related interactions with authorities, police said.

    Here’s what we know so far.

    What happened?

    Filipinos in south Vancouver had gathered for a community street party on Lapu Lapu Day, an event commemorating an Indigenous leader who fought against Spanish colonization of the Philippines.

    But what had begun as a joyous occasion turned into a horrific scene when a black Audi SUV was driven into the large crowd at around 8 p.m. local time. The driver is thought to have operated alone and was the only person in the vehicle, police said.

    Festival attendees and bystanders helped chase the driver down and he was later arrested at the site, according to Vancouver Police.

    Who is the suspect?

    Lo, a 30-year-old Vancouver resident, has been charged with eight counts of second-degree murder, according to police statement on Sunday. He has appeared in court and remains in custody.

    Vancouver police said more charges are expected.

    The police statement did not give further identifying information, such as Lo’s ethnicity, or possible motives – but authorities had earlier said there was no sign the attack was an act of terrorism.

    Who were the victims?

    Eleven people, ranging in age from 5 to 65, were killed in the attack, police said. The names of the those who died have not yet been released and some have yet to be formally identified, the statement said.

    Some of the injured remained in critical condition on Sunday, police said at a news conference.

    The street festival on Saturday was a family-friendly affair, with parents and children browsing street food stalls and attending traditional dance performances.

    The Filipino community in the state of British Columbia has been left reeling, with the event organizers expressing “deep heartbreak brought on by this senseless tragedy” in a statement on Instagram. A vigil took place on Sunday evening, with photos showing crowds lighting candles and laying flowers near the site of the attack.

    What have Filipino authorities said?

    Authorities in both Canada and the Philippines have condemned the attack and shared their sympathies with the families affected.

    Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said those killed in the “unspeakable tragedy” would “not be forgotten,” and that Filipino diplomats and staff in Vancouver have been instructed to assist the victims and coordinate with the Canadian authorities.

    The Philippine Consulate General in Vancouver also shared a statement on Instagram. “As we await more information about the incident, we pray that our community remains strong and resilient imbued with the spirit of bayanihan during this difficult time,” the consulate said, using the Tagalog word referring to the spirit of helping one another as a community, especially in times of need.

    There are about 925,500 ethnic Filipinos in Canada, according to the latest national census in 2021. The Philippines is the second-largest source of immigrants to Canada, behind India.

    The Filipino population in Canada is most densely concentrated in Manitoba province, followed by Alberta, Yukon, Saskatchewan and British Columbia.

    What about the election?

    The tragedy happened just days before Canada’s crucial federal election on Monday, raising fresh questions about public safety. In response, authorities have tried to soothe anxieties and voiced confidence in existing security plans.

    “Our first priority is and will always be protecting the residents of Vancouver,” said Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim, stressing that Vancouver “is still a safe city” where a “vast majority” of events happen without incident. He had directed a full review of safety measures after the attack, he said.

    Vancouver Police interim chief Steve Rai also said authorities had conducted a risk assessment prior to the festival, which was largely held on the grounds of a school that was not directly accessible through public roads.

    He added that they found no “threats to the event or to the Filipino community,” and decided that police officers and heavy vehicle barricades would not be deployed on site.

    “While I’m confident the joint risk assessment and public safety plan was sound, we will be working with our partners at the City of Vancouver to review all of the circumstances surrounding the planning of this event,” Rai said.

    On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was “deeply heartbroken” over the attack, while stressing authorities do not believe there is any “active threat” to Canadians.

    Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, Carney’s chief rival in the election, also extended his condolences to the victims and their families.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

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    World

    Russian military turns to motorbikes to evade Ukrainian drones on frontlines

    The Russian military is planning to increase the use of small squads on motorcycles and quadbikes on the frontlines in Ukraine as it plans fresh offensives, according to the Ukrainian military and analysts of the conflict.

    The Russian Defense Ministry published video on Saturday showing units practising tactics in groups of two or three motorbikes, with a rider seen navigating a course to the sound of a pulsating electronic soundtrack.

    Russian forces have used motorbikes and quads in several areas of the frontlines in an effort to evade Ukrainian drones for more than a year. But the Institute for the Study of War in Washington says the latest Russian video “indicates that the Russian military is likely developing a tactical doctrine for systematic offensive motorcycle usage and may be preparing to issue an increased number of motorcycles.”

    Ukraine expects a major Russian offensive in the next few months as Moscow tries to capture more territory before any ceasefire agreement.

    The Ukrainian military calls the motorbike assaults ‘banzai attacks.’ One Ukrainian commander, Andriy Otchenash, said earlier this month that the motorcycles are designed for a quick blitzkrieg. “They can advance very quickly, get behind the lines,” he said, but losses on the Russian side were very high.

    “It indicates that the enemy does not have a large amount of military offensive equipment, but on the other hand, it is an adaptation to the conditions of war,” said the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication.

    On Saturday, the Ukrainian military said it had repelled a Russian assault on the village of Bahatyr on the Donetsk frontlines, destroying 15 motorcycles and killing about 40 Russian soldiers. It distributed video of drones eliminating a number of motorbikes in open countryside.

    The Ukrainian military reported in February the Russians were using more quadbikes around Chasiv Yar, also in Donetsk, where the frontlines have barely moved over the past year.

    One Ukrainian military spokesman, Lt. Col. Pavlo Shamshyn, said the use of motorbikes was a mixed blessing for Russian troops. Their speed and manoeuvrability helped them to evade Ukrainian drones, but the noise of a bike prevented riders from hearing drones.

    Russian state media has been promoting the advantages of motorbike units. Russia Today reported last week that motorcyclists were planting mines and interviewed a soldier with the 39th Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade, who is part of a new motorised group.

    “Our main advantage is that we can drive directly into [the enemy’s position] and neutralise everyone,” he said. The enemy “hear the roar of the motorcycles, and it causes panic among them. They simply abandon their positions and run away.”

    The Russian military is also using motorbikes to evacuate the wounded. The Telegram account of the Defense Ministry’s publication Zvezda reported last week that Russian marines fighting in the Kursk region were using all-terrain motorcycles to evacuate civilians and wounded soldiers. Video showed a soldier being put on the back of a bike in muddy fields.

    Last year, the UK’s Defense Ministry said the Russians were increasingly using off-road bikes and all-terrain vehicles for night-time attacks. But it noted that Ukrainian FPV drones, which fly into their target, had already demonstrated how vulnerable such unprotected vehicles were.

    Late in 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected Chinese-made all-terrain vehicles being procured for the Russian army. At that point some 500 were already in service, and the Defense Ministry ordered around 1,500 more.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

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    Israeli airstrike rocks southern Beirut after military issues evacuation warning

    An Israeli airstrike rocked southern Beirut on Sunday soon after the military issued an evacuation warning for the Lebanese capital.

    Footage from Reuters showed a huge plume of smoke rising from the area shortly after 6:00 p.m. (11 a.m. ET). It is unclear if the attack caused damage or casualties.

    The target of the strike was a Hezbollah facility in Beirut which stored precision missiles, according to a joint statement from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz.

    The attack came after Israel Defense Forces spokesman Avichay Adraee advised civilians to evacuate from the Hadath neighborhood. Adraee said Hezbollah was using facilities in the area and said civilians should move 300 meters away.

    Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned Israel for attacking the area and urged the US and France to “compel Israel to immediately halt its aggressions.”

    Since a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect in November, the IDF has carried out a number of strikes, regularly targeting southern Lebanon. The IDF says these strikes have targeted Hezbollah militants and facilities.

    Strikes in the capital of Beirut have been rare however. On April 1, the IDF struck a target in the Dahieh area in Beirut. Only days before, the Israeli military had conducted another attack in Beirut.

    This is a developing story and will be updated.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

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    Politics

    Waltz doubles down on Hegseth praise amid ongoing Pentagon controversy

    Trump national security adviser Mike Waltz reiterated the administration’s support for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Sunday, saying they ‘couldn’t be prouder’ of his early months in the role, despite a wave of high-profile controversies and resignations that have embroiled the department in recent weeks.

    Speaking to Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday, Waltz was pressed about the alleged dysfunction inside the Pentagon’s top ranks— and whether, in his view, the current Pentagon is equipped to deliver on lofty foreign policy goals, including helping broker a negotiated settlement in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    ‘Can you do this in what appears to be a chaotic, weakened Defense Department?’ Bartiromo asked Waltz on ‘Sunday Morning Futures,’ citing reports of chaos and dysfunction, including recent firings of Hegseth’s top aides, and reports he has been threatening polygraph tests for some staffers at the department.

    ‘I’ll tell you about a weakened Pentagon,’ Waltz fired back. ‘That was one that had a Defense Secretary that disappeared for two weeks just last year, and nobody knew about it.’ 

    In contrast to his predecessor, Waltz said Hegseth is ‘leading from the front’ at the Defense Department, and praised what he described as Hegseth’s early efforts to reform the Pentagon.

    ‘He is leading the charge, and he has no tolerance for leaking,’ Waltz said, dismissing the alleged chaos or dysfunction as a ‘media narrative,’ and one he vowed they ‘are going to power through.’

    Waltz also brushed off a question about the departures of senior aides, including Hegseth’s own chief of staff, Joe Kasper, last week.

    The exodus of senior officials and other allegations of chaos from inside the Pentagon have prompted some Democrats to call for an investigation into his leadership.

    But Waltz also brushed off these characterizations of dysfunction on Sunday. Asked by Bartiromo how he was going to replace the fired Pentagon officials, Waltz said in response: ‘Maria, there’s 20,000 people in the Pentagon.’

     ‘There is a record number of generals,’ he said. ‘And the other piece— there is accountability. We have had several general officers that weren’t getting the job done, and admirals get fired and get replaced… That’s what the Pentagon needs.’

    Waltz argued that that is a stark contrast to the longtime culture at the Pentagon, where he said ‘no one ever gets fired, [and] there’s never a sense of accountability.’

    ‘And now there is,’ he told Bartiromo.

    ‘Whether it’s leaks, or not getting the job done, or failures in terms of procurement acquisition, now you have a leader that’s in charge,’ Waltz said. ‘And I couldn’t be prouder of Pete Hegseth.’

    Waltz’s remarks come as Hegseth’s role has come under mounting scrutiny in recent weeks — both for his participation in at least one Signal group chat in March where he discussed a planned military strike against the Houthis, and the firing of several senior staffers earlier this month.

    Hegseth earlier this month fired three top aides: including his aide, Dan Caldwell, his deputy chief of staff Darin Selnick, and the chief of staff to the deputy defense secretary, Colin Carroll. 

    These oustings were described as both ‘baffling’ and alarming by John Ullyot, a former Pentagon communications official who resigned earlier this year.

    ‘The dysfunction is now a major distraction for the president — who deserves better from his senior leadership,’ Ullyot wrote in an op-ed for Politico.

    The White House, however, has sought to emphasize its support for Hegseth in recent days, with both Vice President JD Vance and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt vehemently dismissing reports that the administration could be considering a possible replacement. 

    ‘Let me reiterate: The president stands strongly behind Secretary Hegseth and the change that he is bringing to the Pentagon, and the results that he’s achieved thus far speak for themselves,’ Leavitt told reporters at a briefing last week, describing the reports as a ‘smear campaign.’

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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    Politics

    Defunding DEI: Here’s how the Trump administration has undone Biden’s very prized programs

    President Donald Trump shut down all diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) offices across the federal government during his first week in office and signed a number of executive orders to quickly undo former President Joe Biden’s efforts. 

    The president, just hours after taking the Oath of Office on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, signed an executive order to eliminate all DEI programs from the federal government. He also quickly signed an order making it ‘the official policy of the U.S. government to only recognize two genders: male and female.’ 

    A day later, the president directed the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to notify heads of agencies and departments to close all DEI offices and place those government workers in those offices on paid leave. 

    That move quickly forced those offices to take down all outward facing media — websites, social media accounts, and more — for those DEI offices, and required the withdrawal of any final pending documents, directives, orders, materials and equity plans. 

    Trump also canceled current and impending contracts focused on DEI initiatives, with Elon Musk, who heads up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), saying that move saved the federal government $420 million. 

    The president also issued two other executive actions that day targeting DEI. 

    One was an executive order to end discrimination in the workplace and higher education through race and sex-based preferences under the guise of DEI. 

    The other was a memo to eliminate a Biden administration policy that prioritized DEI hiring at the Federal Aviation Administration. 

    In the memo rolling back Biden’s DEI hiring practices at the FAA, Trump ordered the secretary of transportation and FAA administrator to immediately stop Biden’s DEI hiring programs and return to nondiscriminatory, merit-based hiring.

    Trump also required that the FAA administrator review the past performance and performance standards of all agency employees in critical safety positions and make it clear that anyone who fails to demonstrate adequate capability is replaced by someone who will ensure flight safety and efficiency.

    ‘Illegal and discriminatory diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) hiring, including on the basis of race, sex, disability, or any other criteria other than the safety of airline passengers and overall job excellence, competency, and qualification, harms all Americans, who deserve to fly with confidence,’ the memo read.

    The memo stated: ‘All so-called DEI initiatives, including all dangerous preferencing policies or practices, shall immediately be rescinded in favor of hiring, promoting, and otherwise treating employees on the basis of individual capability, competence, achievement, and dedication.’

    Trump also rescinded Biden’s order on diversity initiatives, ‘Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government,’ which he signed on his first day in office in 2021. 

    In February, the Department of Education also warned state education departments that they must remove DEI policies or risk losing federal funding.

    That move came after Trump signed executive orders directing agencies to provide a plan to eliminate federal funding for ‘illegal and discriminatory treatment and indoctrination in K-12 schools, including based on gender ideology and discriminatory equity ideology.’

     

    The president’s efforts to end DEI across the federal government also prompted the cancellation of such programs across the private sector. 

    Meta, in January, canceled its DEI programs, as did McDonald’s. And after the 2024 election, Walmart, Ford Motor Co., John Deere, Lowe’s and Toyota also ended DEI programs. 

    As recently as April, according to Forbes, IBM, Gannett, and Constellation Brands Inc., made changes to DEI policies. Earlier this year, UnitedHealth Group, MLB, Victoria’s Secret, Warner Bros. Discovery, Goldman Sachs, Paramount, Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, Pepsi, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Coca-Cola, Deloitte, PBS, Google, Disney, GE, PayPal, Chipotle and more scaled back or canceled their DEI programs. 

    Meanwhile, in March, the National Institutes of Health rescinded the agency’s ‘Scientific Integrity Policy’ implemented during the last few weeks of Biden’s term, to peel back any DEI requirements. 

    That Biden-era policy said that DEI was an ‘integral’ part of ‘the entire scientific process,’ and pushed NIH’s chief scientist and top scientific integrity official to ‘promote agency efforts regarding diversity, equity and inclusion.’ It also instituted agency-wide policy directives ordering supervisors at the NIH to ‘support’ scientists and researchers who are ‘asexual’ or ‘intersex,’ while imploring NIH leadership to ‘confer with relevant offices’ when additional DEI expertise is needed.  

    ‘The Biden administration weaponized NIH’s scientific integrity policy to inject harmful DEI and gender ideology into research,’ said Health and Human Services Department spokesperson, Andrew Nixon. ‘Rescinding this (scientific integrity) policy will allow NIH to restore science to its golden standard and protect the integrity of science.’      

    The Biden administration also funded grants related to DEI, such as one for roughly $165,000 that was focused on ‘queering the curriculum’ for family medicine doctors to guide them in their treatment of transgender patients. Those grants have been canceled. 

    And earlier this week, multiple federal agencies told Fox News Digital that they have dropped millions of dollars in contracts for LinkedIn services over the business social network’s embrace of DEI. 

    The Departments of Treasury, Interior and Veterans Affairs dropped LinkedIn — a move to comply with the president’s executive orders banning federal agencies from contracting with companies that embrace DEI policies. 

    ‘Every American taxpayer should be angry that the Biden administration wasted so much money on contracts like these,’ an Interior Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital. ‘Under the leadership of President Trump, we have been combing through hundreds of thousands of contracts here at the Department alone and are canceling wasteful, woke, and downright ridiculous contracts that do not align with the will of the American people.’ 

    A LinkedIn spokesperson told Fox News Digital, in response, that: ‘Like every business, the organizations that use our products change, often driven by shifts in their budgets and priorities. We’re keeping our focus on helping our customers achieve the objectives they’ve set.’ 

    Fox News Digital’s David Spector and Alec Schemmel contributed to this report. 

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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